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Bank Of England To Lean Against Market Rate Cut Bets As Brexit Nears

Bank Of England To Lean Against Market Rate Cut Bets As Brexit Nears 1

But it is less clear how Governor Mark Carney will tackle the challenge posed by a possible no-deal Brexit. New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he’ll take Britain from the EU on Oct. 31 without a transition deal if Brussels does not rewrite the deal it hammered out with his predecessor Theresa May.

But the BoE says Britain is a special case. Chief economist Andy Haldane outlined the other day how British rates had not increased to anything like the extent they had in the United States, while Britain’s job market and inflation were much more buoyant than in the euro area. Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Robert Wood said. Assistance about what the BoE shall do when there is no offer will be less clear-cut, and may grow to be little more than ‘wait and see’, Wood added. However, Carney plus some other rate-setters have said a rate lower would be their most likely response.

Normally the BoE’s forecasts for inflation and growth would offer a good steer on where it views rates going and the perspective for the overall economy, on Thursday night but this is less likely. In May, the BoE predicted growth of just one 1.5% this season as well as for inflation to somewhat overshoot its 2% focus on over the next two to three years. In addition, it said markets were underestimating its determination to raise rates if the economy grew as forecast. However, with a lot uncertainty about Brexit, the forecasts risk being predicated on contradictory assumptions. The central lender typically bases its forecasts on a recognized government policy — which remains to get a Brexit offer — even if a no-deal Brexit is an evergrowing risk.

Yet the market prices for Sterling and interest rates, as well as studies of business confidence, which feed into the BoE’s forecasts, reveal the risk of a no-deal Brexit. Many economists would like the BoE to create different forecasts for the economy under ‘deal’ and ‘no offer’ scenarios. Nonetheless it is more possible that the central bank, which has before been accused by pro-Brexit campaigners of having an anti-Brexit bias, will tweak the financial market assumptions that go into its forecasts instead.

  • Jul 29, 2019 #24
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